¿Puede el desarrollo financiero promover el desarrollo humano? Evidencia para Venezuela
| Autor | Leonardo Vera - Albany Hernández - Dorelia Osorio |
| Cargo | Ph.D. Economía. Profesor asociado, Universidad Central de Venezuela. Caracas, Venezuela - Economista. Especialista Senior. Unidad de Riesgo Corporativo, Banco de Venezuela. Caracas, Venezuela - Economista. Analista de Presupuesto. Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (ONAPRE). Caracas, Venezuela |
| Páginas | 23-42 |
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xctkcdngu"ug"fkxkfgp"gp"kpfkecfqtgu"fg"rtqhwpfkfcf"
Þpcpekgtc"*nc"tc¦„p"etfifkvqu1"RKD."fgr„ukvqu1RKD"{"gn"
etfifkvq"tgcn"rgt"eƒrkvc+."kpfkecfqtgu"fg"eqdgtvwtc"q"
rgpgvtcek„p"fgoqitƒÞec"*eqoq"nc"uwoc"fgn"p¿og>
∗&∃?≅Α∃Β∃05∋)∗&∃2)∃∀/%/∗∀!.)∀∃ 3&∗∃%!2!∃Χ∆∆∃∋(.∃
jcdkvcpvgu+"{."rqt"¿nvkoq."gn"p¿ogtq"fg"ewgpvcu"{"
).∃05∋)∗&∃2)∃%/)0+!∀∃3)∗∃%13(+!9
Nqu" itƒÞequ" 3." 4" {" 5." swg" tgrtgugpvcp" nc"
gxqnwek„p"fg"nc" tc¦„p"etfifkvq1RKD."fgr„ukvqu1RKD" {"
fgn"etfifkvq"tgcn"rqt" jcdkvcpvg."fgufg"gn"c‚q"3;92"
{"jcuvc" gn"c‚q" 422;." eqkpekfgp"gp" kpfkect"swg" nc"
dcpectk¦cek„p." fgufg" nc" xkuvc" qhtgekfc" rqt" guvqu"
(02(%!2&∗)∀4∃ 3!∗)%)∃ >
∋)0+)∃.&∀∃%(%.&∀∃ .!∗Ε&∀∃)0∃.!∃+)02)0%(!∃ 2)∃%()∗+!∀∃
,!∗(!−.)∀∃ ∋!%∗&)%&06∋(%!∀∃ 2)∃ Ε∗!0∃ (∋3&∗+!0%(!∃
rctc"Xgpg¦wgnc."eqoq."rqt"glgornq."rwgfgp"ugt"nqu"
3∗)%(&∀∃2).∃3)+∗6.)&9∃:∀+&∀∃(02(%!2&∗)∀∃)Φ
eqorqtvcokgpvq"gp"vtgu"hcugu"fkuvkpvcuwpc"hcug"fg"
cwig"swg"ug"rtqnqpic"jcuvc"eqokgp¦qu"fg"nqu"c‚qu"
3;:2"*gp"gn"ecuq"fg"nc"tc¦„p"etfifkvq1RKD"jcuvc"Þpc>
ngu"fg"nqu"3;92+="wpc"hcug"fg"ecfc"{"guvcdknk¦cek„p"
*gp"wp"rkuq"dclq+."swg"ug"rtqnqpic"jcuvc"nc"ffiecfc"
fgn" 4222." {."Þpcnogpvg." wp" tgpqxcfq" cwig" swg"
∃
ug"fc" c" rctvkt"fgn" c‚q" 42260"U g"qdugtxc" cfgoƒu"
;/)∃2/∗!0+)∃ )∀!∀∃ %!∀(∃%/!+∗&∃ 28%!2!∀∃)Φ(∀+)∃ /0!∃
!.+!∃%&∗∗).!%(60∃)0+∗)∃.&∀∃3∗)%(&∀∃2).∃ 3)+∗6.)&∃Β∃).∃
,&./∋)0∃2)∃2)36∀(+&∀9∃
ItƒÞec"30"
Gxqnwek„p"fg"nc"tc¦„p"etfifkvqu1RKD."3;92/422;
Hwgpvg
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Años
Razón Créditos/PIB
Polinómica (Razón Créditos/PIB)
1970
!∀
!∀#∃%∃&∃∋&%∃()∗∗+∋∋+&,−.)./−∃∗+&∀∗+0+1∃∗&∃∋&%∃()∗∗+∋∋+&2#0).+3&∃1−%∃./−)&∀)∗)&1∃.∃4#∃∋)
ItƒÞec"50"
Gxqnwek„p"fgn"etfifkvq"tgcn"rgt"eƒrkvc"*Dcug"3;;9+."3;92/422;
Hwgpvg
ItƒÞec"40"
Gxqnwek„p"fg"nc"Tc¦„p"Fgr„ukvqu1RKD."3;92/422;
Hwgpvg
ItƒÞec"60"
Gxqnwek„p"fgn"p¿ogtq"fg"uwewtucngu"{"CVOu"rqt"ecfc"322"okn"jcdkvcpvgu."3;92/422;
Hwgpvg
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Años
Razón Depósitos/PIB Precio del petróleo real US$/bl
(2005=100)
1970
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Precios del petróleo
Polinómica
(Razón Depósitos/PIB)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Años
Crédito Real Per Cápita (base 1997)
Polinómica
(Crédito Real Per Cápita (base 1997))
1970
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Años
Número de sucursales y ATIVS por cada 100 mil hab.
Polinómica
(Número de sucursales y ATM's por cada 100 mil hab.)
1970
!∀
!∀#∃#%∃&∋(∋)∗+,−∀.∃∋/.∗#01∀.∃2!!∀∀#∃%&&∋()∗+∋∗,%−./0%1,%#.0%2,%3435.)6748.,%&+29,%::0%&9)∋&
Ngqpctfq"Xgtc"̋"Cndcp{"Jgtpƒpfg¦"̋"Fqtgnkc"Quqtkq
Nc" eqpenwuk„p" swg" cttqlc" guvc" oktcfc" rc!
pqtƒokec"ecodkc"gp" nc"ogfkfc"swg"pqu" cnglcoqu"
fg" guvqu" kpfkecfqtgu" fg" rtqhwpfkfcf" Þpcpekgtc0"
Nqu"itƒÞequ"6."7"{"8"rtgugpvcp"nc"gxqnwek„p"fg"nqu"
kpfkecfqtgu"CVO"oƒu"p¿ogtq"fg"qÞekpcu"rqt"322"
∀#∃%&∋(#)∋∗)+,−%+∃%∗.∀+/0%1+%23+∗)∋,%1+%1+45,#)0%
6%+∃%∗.∀+/0%1+%23+∗)∋,%1+%1+45,#)0%40/%&∋(#)∋∗)+7%
%
80,%1∋)0,%+∗%20//+,40∗1+∗2#∋%+,)9∗%1+%#:3∋∃%∀∋∗+/∋%%
fgufg"gn"c‚q"3;92"jcuvc"gn"c‚q"422;0"Nc"eqdgtvwtc"fg"%
nqu"ugtxkekqu"dcpectkqu."oglqt"ogfkfc"rqt"ncu"rtqzku"
fg"dcpectk¦cek„p"p¿ogtq"fg"uwewtucngu" {"CVO"rqt"
2∋1∋%;<∀#∃%&∋(#)∋∗)+,=."owguvtc"gp"gn"itƒÞeq"6"wpc"
)+∗1+∗2#∋%2/+2#+∗)+%∋%∃0%∃∋/:0%1+∃%4+/#010%+,)31#∋10>%
guvc"eqokgp¦c" gp" 3;92" eqp"wp" xcnqt" fg"6.:" rctc"
∃∃+:∋/%∋∃%∋?0%≅< Β∋∃0/%2∋,#%=%Β+2+,%,34+/#0/7%
80,%1∋)0,%,0(/+%+∃%∗.∀+/0%1+%23+∗)∋,%(∋∗2∋/#∋,%6%1+%
23+∗)∋,%(∋∗2∋/#∋,%40/%&∋(#)∋∗)+%)∋∀(#Χ∗%0(,+/Β∋∗%
3∗∋%)+∗1+∗2#∋%2/+2#+∗)+7%
=%%% ∆∗1#2∋10/%Ε3+%,+%20∗,)/36+%)+∗#+∗10%+∗% 23+∗)∋%+∃%∗.∀+/0%
)0)∋∃%1+%ΦΓΗ%∀9,%,323/,∋∃+,%+∗%+∃%4∋Ι,%6%∃∋%40(∃∋2#5∗%)0)∋∃%
c"ecfc"c‚q0"Eqp"guvc"kphqtocek„p"ug"qdvkgpg"ewcpvcu"uwewt!
,∋∃+,%6%ΦΓΗ%+ϑ#,)+∗%+∗%+∃%4∋Ι,%40/%2∋1∋%;<<7<<
ItƒÞec"80"
Gxqnwek„p"fgn"p¿ogtq"fg"fgr„ukvqu"rgtecrkvc."3;92/422;
Hwgpvg
ItƒÞec"70"
Gxqnwek„p"fgn"p¿ogtq"fg"fgr„ukvqu."3;92/422;
Hwgpvg
30.000.000
25.000.000
20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Años
Número de Depósitos
Polinómica (Número de Depósitos)
1970
!∀
!∀#∃%∃&∃∋&%∃()∗∗+∋∋+&,−.)./−∃∗+&∀∗+0+1∃∗&∃∋&%∃()∗∗+∋∋+&2#0).+3&∃1−%∃./−)&∀)∗)&1∃.∃4#∃∋)
Ewtkqucogpvg." {" gp" eqpvt cuvg." gp" 3;;6" gn"
p¿ogtq"fg" ewgpvcu"fg" fgr„ukvq"uwhtk„"wpc" ecfc"
rwpvwcn"cdtwrvc" *fg" 49.8'+." fgurnqog" swg" rgt!
ukuvg"rctc"gn"c‚q"3;;7="vqfq"guvq."ukp"fwfc."eqoq"
eqpugewgpekc"fg"nc"etkuku"Þpcpekgtc"c"nc"swg"guvwxq"
gzrwguvc"nc"geqpqoc"xgpg¦qncpc"gp"gug"gpvqpegu0"
∀#∃#%∃∋()&∗∃#)∃ +,#−+).∃−+∃/#0(∋#/+012)∃#%∃1)!
okpgpvg"jcuvc"nngict"cn"c‚q" 3;;;."ewcpfq"eq{wp!
vwtcnogpvg"guvqu"kpfkecfqtgu"fkuokpw{gp"wpc"xg¦"
34%5∃6%&∗∃∋∗,/7+∃%#/∃#8∋−10+,∗∃∋∗/∃−+∃1)0#/&1,(39/#∃
∋∗−7&10+∃+%∗01+,+∃+∃ −+∃+∋+/1012)∃,#∃ ()∃)(#:∗∃∋/∗!
;#0&∗∃∋∗−7&10∗∃#)∃()∃0∗)&∗∃,∗),#∃ ∋/#:+−#07+∃−+∃
−19/#∃3∗:1−1,+,∃,#∃0+∋1&+−#%5
6%&+∃,1%&1)012)∃#)&/#∃#%&∗%∃,∗%∃&1∋∗%∃,#∃1),1!
ecfqtgu"fg"dcpectk¦cek„p"gu"etvkec."pq"uqnq"rqtswg"
ncu"eqpenwukqpgu"swg"cttqlcp"nqu"jgejqu"guvknk¦cfqu"
cuqekcfqu"c"nc"gxqnwek„p"fg"ncu"ugtkgu"uqp"fkhgtgpvgu."
%1)∗.∃+,#34%.∃;∃0∗3∗∃:#/#3∗%∃34%∃+,#−+).∃∋∗/∃
gn"jgejq"fg"swg"ekgtvq"eqplwpvq"fg"kpfkecfqtgu"rc!
/#0#)∃%#/∃34%∃+∋&∗%∃∋+/+∃%∗%)#/∃−+∃<1∋2%1%∃=(#∃
)∗%∃3(#:#∃;∃=(#∃+∋()&+∃∋∗%19−#∃/#−+012)∃
rqukvkxc"gpvtg"dcpectk¦cek„p"{"fgucttqnnq"jwocpq0
#∃%&∋()∗+,∃%,+%∗−%./−0∗#1%+−23+%
&∃−0∃345∃046−%7%,+(∃331##1%
(1041+01−68401
Nc" tgncek„p" swg" rqvgpekcnogpvg" rwgfg" vglgtug"
gpvtg"dcpectk¦cek„p" {" fgucttqnnq"uqekqgeqp„okeq"
&1#)#∃%(%∃ /+70#%∃#)∃ −+∃+%∗01+012)∃=(#∃ ∋∗/∃+>∗%∃ %#∃
nc" rtqhwpfkfcf" Þpcpekgtc" {" gn" RKD" rgt" eƒrkvc" *q"
cnvgtpcvkxcogpvg" gn" etgekokgpvq" geqp„okeq+0"
?#)01−−+3#)∃%#∃+/≅(;#∃=(#∃()∃%1%+∃34%∃∋/∗!
hwpfq" rwgfg" igpgtct" ukipkÞecvkxqu" kpetgogpvqu"
gp"nc" rtqfwevkxkfcf"{" guvq"eqpnngxc" c"oglqtct"ncu"
∋∗%191−1,+,#%∃ ,#∃ 0/#0131#)&∗∃ ,#−∃ ∋/∗,(0&∗∃ ;∃ ,#−∃
1)≅/#%∗65∃Α−≅()∗%∃3∗,#−∗%∃/10∗%∃#)∃#%∃4391&∗∃
owguvtcp"swg"gn"fgucttqnnq"Þpcpekgtq"rtqowgxg"gn"
etgekokgpvq"geqp„okeq"c"vtcxfiu"fg"nc"oqxknk¦cek„p"
,#−∃+−+∃∋/∗3∗012)∃,#−∃#3∋/#),131#)&∗∃;∃,#∃
nc"kpxgtuk„p"rtkxcfc"{"nc"fkxgtukÞecek„p"fg"tkguiqu0"
6""" Gxgpvwcnogpvg."nc"rtqhwpfkfcf"ug"rtqowgxg"gp"nc"ogfkfc"
swg"gn"ukuvgoc"Þpcpekgtq"guvfi"ogpqu"tgrtgucfq0"
Β#0Χ.∃
Fgokti¯›/Mwpv"{"Octvkpg¦"*4228+"ug‚cncp"cfk!
ekqpcnogpvg"swg"nc"rtqhwpfk¦cek„p"Þpcpekgtc"c{wfc"
)∗∃%∗−∗∃ +−∃ 0/#0131#)&∗∃ #0∗)2310∗.∃ %1)∗∃ +,#34%∃ +∃
cnkxkct"nc"rqdtg¦c0"
∆)∗∃,#∃ −∗%∃∋/13#/∗%∃1))&∗%∃ #8∋−∗/+&∗/1∗%∃
,1/1≅1,∗%∃+∃#)0∗)&/+/∃ ()+∃/#−+012)∃#)&/#∃ +00#%∗∃+∃
nqu" ugtxkekqu" Þpcpekgtqu" {" fgucttqnnq" uqekqgeqp„!
okeq" ug" rtgugpvc" gp" gn" vtcdclq" fg" Tqlcu" Uwctg¦"
*4227+."swkgp"etw¦c"fcvqu"fgn"pfkeg"fg"fgucttqnnq"
,#∃Φ+01∗)#%∃
Wpkfcu"rctc"fgn"Fgucttqnnq"*RPWF+"rctc"gn"c‚q"4225"
eqp"nc"tc¦„p"fgr„ukvqu1RKD" rctc"wp"itwrq"fg" 327"
rcugu0" Tqlcu" Uwctg¦" ug‚cnc
,#∃0+(%+−1,+,∃ #)&/#∃,#%+//∗−−∗∃ %∗01+−∃;∃ ,#%+//∗−−∗∃
Þpcpekgtq"gu"eqpvtqxgtukcn."nq"swg"u"gu"enctq"gu"swg"
codcu"xctkcdngu"uqp"eqorngogpvctkcuÒ"*r0"6+0"
Γ∗%∃
jcnnc¦iqu"fg"Tqlcu"Uwctg¦"*4227+"uqp"uwuvgpvcfqu"rqt"
()∃#%&(,1∗∃∋/∗3∗:1,∗∃ ∋∗/∃#−∃ 0∗)%∗/01∗∃+0+,Η310∗∃
fgpqokpcfq" Kpkekcvkxc" rctc"gn" Ceeguq" Hkpcpekgtq"
*xgt" Ejckc" !∀#∃%." 422;+." fqpfg" ug" gpewgpvtc." rctc"
()∃≅/(∋∗∃,#∃∋+7%#%.∃()+∃#−#:+,+∃0∗//#−+012)∃#)&/#∃#−∃
1),10+,∗/∃,#∃−+∃∋/∗∋∗/012)∃,#∃ −+∃∋∗9−+012)∃(%+),∗∃
ugtxkekqu"Þpcpekgtqu"fg"Jqpqjcp"*422:+"{"gn"RKD"rgt"
04∋1&+5∃
Uctoc"*422:+." rqt"uw" rctvg."fgucttqnnc"wp"
pfkeg"fg"kpenwuk„p"Þpcpekgtc"*KHK"ugi¿p" uwu"ukincu"
gp"kpinfiu+."{"rtqegfg"c"eqpvtcuvctnq"eqp" gn"KFJ"fg"
wp"eqplwpvq"fg"rcugu"fgucttqnncfqu"{"gp"fgucttq!
−−∗Ι∃ 1≅(+−3#)∃ #)0(#)&/+∃ ()+∃ 0∗//#−+012)∃ +−&+∃ ;∃
rqukvkxc"*2.96+0"
6%&+∃0∗//#−+012)∃&+391Η)∃#%&4∃∋/#%#)∃∋+/+∃#−∃
ecuq"xgpg¦qncpq"ewcpfq"ug"wucp"ugtkgu"vgorqtcngu0"
Gn" itƒÞeq" 9" owguvtc" nc" tgncek„p" swg" ug" guvcdngeg"
gpvtg"gn" KFJ"{"gn" p¿ogtq"fg" qÞekpcu"dcpectkcu" tg!
∋∗/&+,+%∃∋∗/∃ −+%∃ #%&+,7%&10+%∃,#∃ ?(,#9+)∃∋+/+∃ #−∃
rgtkqfq"swg" xc"fg" 3;92"c"422;0" Gn"eqgÞekgpvg" fg"
eqttgncek„p"gpvtg"guvcu"xctkcdngu"gu"2.;40
∀#%,#∃−(#≅∗.∃−+%∃ 0∗//#−+01∗)#%∃#)0∗)&/+,+%∃
rctc"guvqu"itwrqu"fg"rcugu"eqoq"rctc"Xgpg¦wgnc"
fgdgp"vtqrg¦ct"eqp"gn"gurkpquq"cuwpvq"fg" nc"ecw!
ucnkfcf0"Tqlcu" Uwctg¦" *4227+"cfgncpvc" nc" vguku"fg"
=(#∃#)∃−+∃3#,1,+∃=(#∃#−∃,#%+//∗−−∗∃%∗01∗#0∗)231!
eq"ug"gngxc." nc"Ñewnvwtc" ÞpcpekgtcÒ"fgn"r¿dnkeq" ug"
jceg"oƒu" uqÞuvkecfc." nq"swg" tgswkgtg." rqt"gpfg."
oƒu" {" oglqtgu" ugtxkekqu" Þpcpekgtqu0" Uqdtg" guvc"
npgc"fg"cpƒnkuku"ug"ctiwogpvc"eqp"htgewgpekc"swg"
∃
!∀
!∀#∃#%∃&∋(∋)∗+,−∀.∃∋/.∗#01∀.∃2!!∀∀#∃%&&∋()∗+∋∗,%−./0%1,%#.0%2,%3435.)6748.,%&+29,%::0%&9)∋&
Ngqpctfq"Xgtc"̋"Cndcp{"Jgtpƒpfg¦"̋"Fqtgnkc"Quqtkq
swg" gn" fgucttqnnq" Þpcpekgtq" vkgpg" wpc" eqttgncek„p"
rqukvkxc"eqp"gn"fgucttqnnq"geqp„okeq"{"swg"gn"ghgevq"
fgn"fgucttqnnq" Þpcpekgtq" gu" oƒu"swg" rtqrqtekqpcn"
gp"gn"ugiogpvq" fg"nc" rqdncek„p"fg"dclqu" tgewtuqu="
guvq"ug"xg"gp"ecodkqu"vcpvq"gp"nc"rqdtg¦c"eqoq"gp"
nc" fkuvtkdwek„p" fgn" kpitguq0" Uvqpg" *4227+" rtgugpvc"
swg"nc"rtqhwpfkfcf"Þpcpekgtc" eqpvtkdw{g"c"tgfwekt"
nc"fgukiwcnfcf"fgn"kpitguq"{"nqu"pkxgngu"fg"rqdtg¦c."
c"vtcxfiu"fg"nc"okpkok¦cek„p"fg"ncu"tguvtkeekqpgu"gp"gn"
!∀#∃%&∋()∋∗∀+(,∋)(−.+/&+)(0∋∗∀+)1(2∋∀()3(0−∀&+4(5/−)6
vcuk."Dncpeq."Gnqugiwk"{"Ucpikƒeqoq"*4228+"ug‚cncp"
swg"wpc"kpvgtogfkcek„p"Þpcpekgtc"jcekc"ncu"rgtuqpcu"
uktxg" eqoq" ogecpkuoq" rctc" hceknkvct" nc" kpxgtuk„p"
+/(!−0%&−,( 738−/∋1( 2∋∀(∋&∀∋( ,−∃∋4(,−( 7%09&+)%)(∃+,(
vtcdclq"fg"Gnnku." Ngooc"{"Twf" *4232+"kpfkec"swg" gn"
ceeguq"c"nqu"ugtxkekqu"Þpcpekgtqu"hceknkvc"nc"kpxgtuk„p"
gp"cevkxqu"*Þpcpekgtqu."hukequ"q"ecrkvcn"jwocpq+"swg"
+,+:−/( ,−( 0∀∋∃3!&%:%∃−∃( +( %/!∀+8+/&−/( +,( %/.∀+)∋(
fg"nqu"jqictgu"c"hwvwtq0(
C"fgekt"xgtfcf."nc"hcnvc"fg"
−!!+)∋( −,( !∀#∃%&∋( !∋/)&%&3;+( 3/−( ∀+)&∀%!!%9/( <3+(
gorwlc"c"nc"rqdncek„p"lqxgp"c"vtcdclct"{"c"tgfwekt"
,−(+)!∋,−∀%∃−∃(;(,−(−∃<3%)%!%9/(∃+(!−0%&−,(738−/∋1(
Guyctcp"{"Mqvycn"*3;;2+"eqorctvgp"nc"kfgc"fg"swg"
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