Incorporación de la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres a las Finanzas: Aplicación del Método de Opciones Reales para Proyectos Sensibles al Riesgo de Desastres
| Autor | Kusdhianto Setiawan |
| Cargo | Ph.D. Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia |
| Páginas | 223-242 |
223
AD-MINISTER
Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for
Finance: Application of Real Options Method for
Disaster Risk Sensitive Project
Incorporación de la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres a las Finanzas: Aplicación del Método de
Opciones Reales para Proyectos Sensibles al Riesgo de Desastres
KUSDHIANTO
SETIAWAN
JEL: G, M, Q
Received: 20/06/2016
Modified: 27/06/2016
Accepted: 30/06/2016
DOI: 10.17230/ad-minister.28.11
www.eafit.edu.co/ad-minister
Creative Commons (CC BY-NC- SA)
1 Ph.D. Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia Email: s.kusdhianto@
ugm.ac.id
ABSTRACT
This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of con-
struction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of
thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is
based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for applica-
tion of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming
disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the
disaster-prone country.
KEYWORDS
Real options; disaster risk management; business continuity plan; disaster response.
RESUMEN
Este artículo discute la aplicación del análisis de opciones reales a un proyecto en proceso de construc-
ción que se vio afectado por un desastre natural. El uso del método analítico se ha convertido en una
manera de pensar cómo la toma de decisiones yiiiu8udebe ser enseñada a los estudiantes de escuelas
de negocios. El caso de este artículo está basado en una tesis de la Maestría en Administración (MBA)
de University of Gadjah Mada, que fue concebida como una plataforma para la aplicación de opciones
reales para abordar los problemas de las empresas reales. Este caso muestra una de las estrategias de
incorporación de la gestión de riesgo de desastres en las escuelas de negocios que, de igual manera,
responde a las necesidades de las empresas en países propensos a desastres.
PALABRAS CLAVE
Opciones reales; gestión del riesgo de desastres; plan de continuidad de negocio; respuesta a desastres.
AD-minister Nº. 28 enero-junio 2016 pp. 223 - 242 · ISSN 1692-0279 · eISSN 2256-4322
Kusdhianto Setiawan
Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method
for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project
224
AD-MINISTER
INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is an archipelago country with a population of more than 230 million peo-
ple, lying on the equator with more than 17,000 (seventeen thousands) islands, and
a part of pacific ring of fire with many active volcanos (129). These geographical,
geological, hydrological, and demographical characteristics make Indonesia one of
the countries most vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquake, tsunami, vol-
cano eruption, tornado, floods, draughts, wildfire, landslide, etc. Such disasters have
caused many casualties and economic damage.
Statistics from the National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) shows that
in January 2016 alone, it recorded 174 disaster events that caused 20 casualties and
missing people, 733,650 people have been displaced and 2,931 units of damaged
homes. Figure 1 depicts how vulnerable Indonesia is to such disasters, as we can see
the area highly aected by disasters (area in red) dominates the map, and the Java
island where 70% of population is living, is also the most vulnerable area.
Figure 1. Number of Dis aster Event and Victim 20 00 – January 2016
Source: BNPB (National Disaster Management Authority).
Moreover, despite its potential (rich with natural resources, demography bo-
nus, tourism destinations, etc.), it seems that many kinds of disasters threaten the
country. Figure 2 shows the statistics of frequency of disasters from 2000 until Jan-
uary, 2016. It indicates that floods are the most frequent disaster (31.4%), followed
by tornados (20.7%), landslides (16.7%), wildfire (12.6%), and draughts (8.9%), with
the rest including terrorism, earthquakes, tsunamis, climate change, volcano erup-
tions, famine, disease outbreaks, etc. All of these disasters undoubtedly cause a vast
amount of economic losses, aecting the continuity of businesses and ultimately
people’s welfare.
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