¿Pensamiento inteligente o Planeacion predecible? La agenda de seguridad energetica del Reino Unido.
| Autor | Lockhart-Smith, Ivonne |
| Páginas | 307(40) |
Resumen
Durante las décadas futuras, el Reino Unido enfrentará un amplio espectro de riesgos asociados con la seguridad energética. El incremento de la dependencia a las importaciones de petróleo y el aumento de la presión internacional para disminuir emisiones de gases han representado para el Reino Unido la necesidad de formular un objetivo clave: asegurar la provisión de energía económicamente viable, suficiente y limpia. La naturaleza y el alcance de las políticas que se requieren para lograr este objetivo de una manera efectiva y a tiempo traen evaluaciones de prospectiva estratégica a la ecuación de toma de decisiones. Este análisis muestra que la construcción de una estrategia de seguridad energética para el Reino Unido materializa el uso de técnicas innovadoras a través de las cuales la planeación de escenarios ha sido articulada dentro de la formulación de políticas desde 1960. La estrategia del Reino Unido es estudiada examinando tres áreas de acción principales, a través del marco analítico de planeación de escenarios. Como resultado, tres premisas centrales son presentadas: la planeación de escenarios es relevante como mecanismo de apoyo para la adaptación (de políticas), es crítica como instrumento persuasivo para la implementación y ejerce una influencia importante como plataforma de legitimación (de políticas). Se argumenta, además, que la planeación de escenarios en la política de seguridad energética del Reino Unido se encontrará bajo altos niveles de escrutinio público en el futuro.
Palabras clave: planeación de escenarios, seguridad energética, política de respuesta, tendendcias, toma de decisiones.
Pensamento inteligente ou planejamento previsível? A agenda de segurança energética do Reino Unido
Resumo
Durante as décadas futuras, o Reino Unido enfrentará um amplo espectro de riscos associados com a segurança energética. O incremento da dependência às importações de petróleo e o aumento da pressão internacional para diminuir emissões de gases têm representado para o Reino Unido a necessidade de formular um objetivo chave: segurar a provisão de energia economicamente viável, suficiente e limpa. A natureza e o alcance daspolíticas que se requerem para lograr este objetivo de uma maneira efetiva e a tempo trazem avaliações de prospectiva estratégica à equação de toma de decisões. Esta análise mostra que a construção de uma estratégia de segurança energética para o Reino Unido materializa o uso de técnicas inovadoras através das quais o planejamento de cenários tem sido articulado dentro da formulação de políticas desde 1960. A estratégia do Reino Unido é estudada examinando três áreas de ação principais, através do marco analítico de planejamento de cenários. Como resultado, três premissas centrais são apresentadas: o planejamento de cenários é relevante como mecanismo de apoio para a adaptação (de políticas), é crítica como instrumento persuasivo para a implementação e exerce uma influencia importante como plataforma de legitimação de políticas). Argumenta-se, além disso, que o planejamento de ce nários na política de segurança energética do Reino Unido se encontrará sob altos níveis de escrutínio público no futuro.
Palavras chave: Planejamento de cenários, segurança energética, política de resposta, tendências, toma de decisões.
Smart thinking or Predictable planning? The UK energy security agenda
Abstract
Over the coming decades, Britain will face a wide range of risks associated with energy security. Increasing fossil fuel import dependence and mounting international pressure to cut greenhouse emissions has presented the UK with the overall goal of securing affordable, sufficient and clean energy supplies. The nature and scope of the policies that are required in order to meet this goal in an effictive and timely manner bring prospective strategic assessments into the decision-making equation. This paper shows that the construction of a comprehensive energy security strategy for the UK epitomises the use of innovative techniques through which scenario planning has been articulated in policy formulation since the 1960s. The UK strategy is studied by examining three major areas of action-- saving energy, providing electricity that is diversified and clean, and ensuring security, of fossil fuels-- through the framework of scenario planning. As a result three key premises ate developed: scenario planning is relevant as a supportive mechanism for adaptation, it is critical as a dissuasive tool for implementation, and it is influential as a platform for legitimisation. It is further argued that increasing serutiny will ensure the future use of scenario planning in UK energy policy.
Key words: Scenario planning, energy security, policy response, trends, decisionmaking.
In the face of the complex, the unpredictable and the inter-dependent, planning for the future is as difficult as it is necessary for governments worldwide. The challenges of economic cooperation are matched by the persistence of economic nationalism, technological advances by increasing inequality, and interstate tensions by insurgency, terrorism and the trafficking of drugs, weapons and people. Governments face increasing demands in a context of widespread change. But if the future cannot be confidently anticipated, the means that policymakers have at their disposal to address the unknown can be optimised. In particular, information is sought to be managed in a more timely and effective way.
Time and information have traditionally been essential to the analysis of policy-making. Academic analysis has explored whether history is read or misread by decision-makers on the eve of crises, and investigated the pitfalls as well as the benefits of hindsight. (1) However, it is clear that a degree of forward-looking analysis is required in any strategically aware decision-making. (2) Expectations regarding the possible actions of other actors and reactions to one's own behaviour are key drivers in policymaking. So is estimating the context in which such interactions take place, and in this case, foresight seeks to anticipate the distant future, with contingency as a decisive variable in policy planning.
Information has been granted a prominent place in most approaches to policy-making. How and when information about specific events and actors is acquired, integrated, disseminated or shared is at the root of any decision affecting domestic or international events. The role of information is, for example, recognised as central in the sub-field of foreign policy analysis, ranging from rational choice perspectives to explanations anchored in the psychology of the individual. (3) However, the practical question of how best to manage information in policymaking by using technological and scientific methods is less frequently addressed by these classical analytical approaches. However, although intelligence is still more often studied by practitioners than by international relations scholars, techniques for policy-planning and assessing risks as part of strategic planning for governments are of increasing interest to policy advisors. As experts on strategic policy intelligence argue "policy-makers do not have the luxury of waiting until situations are clarified and until the effects are evident before they take decisions". (4)
The use of scientific techniques to properly articulate intelligence and policy making is at the core of current government practices. The fast pace of events and the continuous changes which they have signalled have increased uncertainty and shortened policy response times in politics, economics and security, encouraging receptivity towards the use of technological forecasting tools in making decisions. Since the 1990s, policymaking has seen the systematic introduction of innovative tools to government practice, particularly in developed states, in the field of Science and Technology (S&T) and within the framework of Strategic Intelligence. Methods such as risk assessment, scenario planning, and foresight have become more influential among practitioners and better studied by academics. (5) Some studies highlight the impact of foresight in policymaking by underlining the input of robust information (informing policy) and the capabilities for adjusting to changing contexts (facilitating policy implementation). (6) Others emphasise the importance of strategic intelligence "understood as tailor-made information to support decision-makers in developing and implementing their strategies, policies and interventions". (7) In both cases, the extensive use of technologies for developing policy options ahead of time is the distinctive feature.
Scenario planning is one of these innovative tools for policymaking. The design of detailed images of the future aims at dealing systematically with "future risks, opportunities and options by drawing on a broad-range of future expectations and by involving an equally broad range of actors in participatory processes." (8) While scenario planning has been defined as "a natural [and] essential human activity" scenario thinking refers to "the use of the imagination to consider possible alternative situations as they may evolve from the present, with a view to improving immediate and near-term decision making". (9) Furthermore, the effects of this approach on the quality of policy formulation and implementation have been widely recognised in terms of improved resilience (protective decision-making), enhanced timely response (proactive decision-making), and more participatory practices (consensus-building). (10) It is worth noting however, that the systematic use of this tool nowadays--whether to issue dystopic warnings or work constructively towards desirable goals--constitutes the legacy of at least six decades of progressive development.
The complex exercise of exploring evolving trends and sketching plausible outcomes has been integrated into decision-making processes since the...
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