A Causal Mechanism of Policy Innovation: The Reform of Colombia's Oil-Rents Management System
| Autor | Bayron Paz - Guillaume Fontaine |
| Cargo | Master's degree in Public Policy from FLACSO Ecuador - Doctorate in Sociology from Université Sorbonne Nouvelle-Paris |
| Páginas | 2-19 |
2
A Causal Mechanism of Policy Innovation: The Reform of Colombia’s
Oil-Rents Management System*
Bayron Paz** – Guillaume Fontaine***
Reception date: March 14, 2017 · Acceptance date: July 12, 2017 · Modication date: July 25, 2017
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.7440/res63.2018.01
How to cite: Paz, Bayron and Guillaume Fontaine. 2018. “A Causal Mechanism of Policy Innovation: The Reform of Colombia’s
Oil-Rents Management System.” Revista de Estudios Sociales 63: 2-19. https://dx.doi.org/10.7440/res63.2018.01
* This paper is a product of the research done on “Innovación en el diseño de políticas públicas: formalización bayesiana de
process tracing aplicada a la política de regalías en Colombia,” in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master’s degree
in Public Policy by Bayron Paz, under the supervision of Guillaume Fontaine. The project received a grant from the Academic
Development Fund of FLACSO Ecuador, and discussed with the Research Group on Comparative Policy Analysis at FLACSO. The
authors wish to thank Derek Beach, Edwin Alvarado and Iván Narváez for their comments. Any possible error remains the sole
responsibility of the authors.
** Master’s degree in Public Policy from FLACSO Ecuador. Degree in Economics from the Universidad de Nariño (Colombia). Professor,
Researcher and Research Coordinator at the Universidad Mariana (Colombia). Research topics: policy change and innovation;
extractive policy; fiscal policy; research methods. * bpazn@umariana.edu.co
*** Doctorate in Sociology from Université Sorbonne Nouvelle-Paris 3. Post-Doctoral researcher at Sciences-Po (France). Senior
researcher in the Department of Public Affairs of FLACSO Ecuador. Research topics: public accountability, policy design, resource
nationalism. Latest books published: El análisis de políticas públicas: Conceptos, teorías y métodos. Quito: FLACSO – Anthropos,
2015; Petropolítica: Una teoría de la gobernanza energética. Quito: FLACSO – Instituto de Estudios Peruanos – Abya Yala, 2010.
* gfontaine@flacso.edu.ec
ABSTRACT | This article analyzes policy innovation in Colombia, through the adoption of a new centra-
lized oil-rent management system in 2011, after 20 years of decentralized policies. Using a policy-design
framework, we identify a causal mechanism linking the opening of a policy window to policy change as
a combination of the emergence of a new policy network, the adoption of a new policy paradigm and the
selection of a new instruments mix. Drawing on Bayesian statistics, the 11 tests conducted on the causal
mechanism show the importance of State resources of information, authority, treasury and organization to
assess the outcome of policy change.
KEYWORDS | Thesaurus: Colombia; innovation. Author: policy design; process tracing; oil rents
Un mecanismo causal de innovación de política pública: la reforma del sistema de gestión de rentas
petroleras en Colombia
RESUMEN | Este artículo analiza la innovación de políticas públicas en Colombia, a través de la adopción de un
nuevo sistema centralizado de manejo de rentas petroleras en 2011, tras veinte años de políticas descentrali-
zadas de regalías. Aplicando un marco analítico basado en el diseño de políticas, identicamos un mecanismo
causal relacionando la apertura de una ventana de oportunidad con un cambio de políticas públicas, como
resultado de una combinación de la aparición de una nueva red de política, la adopción de un nuevo paradigma
de políticas y la selección de una nueva mezcla de instrumentos. Con base en las estadísticas bayesianas, las
once pruebas aplicadas al mecanismo causal muestran la importancia de los recursos estatales de información,
poder, hacienda y organización para explicar el cambio de políticas públicas.
PALABRAS CLAVE | Thesaurus: Colombia; innovación. Autor: diseño de políticas; seguimiento de procesos;
rentas petroleras
3
A Causal Mechanism of Policy Innovation: The Reform of Colombia’s Oil-Rents Management System | Bayron Paz · Guillaume Fontaine
TEMAS VARIOS
Introduction: Innovation as Policy Change
Innovation is often related to competition and the
private sector both in scholarship and in political dis-
course (OECD 2005; Reta 2016, 12), but governments
are also interested in innovations that allow them to do
more with less and, furthermore, in a transparent and
consensual fashion (Considine, Lewis and Damon 2009,
25). Yet the public sector has been described as a rigid
scenario, with low sensibility to contextual change and
poor incentives (Altshuler 1997; Ballart 2001, 16), and a
bureaucratic layout that tends to limit the emergence
of new innovative proposals (Armstrong and Ford 2001,
18; Crozier, 1974; Kooiman 2003, 116).
A policy innovation is essentially a policy change,
although not every policy change is an innovation
(Howlett 2014, 397; Moore, Sparrow and Spelman 1997).
So what special features should a particular policy
change present in order to qualify as innovation? (Jor-
dan and Huitema 2014a, 389). Policy innovations are not
limited to postulating new and fascinating ideas but
rather to implementing new practices implying a sig-
nicant change of commonly accepted protocols (Alt-
schuler and Zegans, 1997; Cejudo, Daussage and Michel
2016, 18). Thus, for a change to qualify as innovation,
it ought to be relevant, general and sustainable for its
eects on behaviors and operations to be noticeable
(Moore, Sparrow and Spelman 1997, 276).
The denition of policy innovation can refer to inven-
tion (Bingham 1978, 180), diusion (Rogers 1983, 11;
Walker 1969, 881), or even to evaluation of subsequent
eects (Daglio, Gerson and Kitchen 2015, 4; Hilden, Jor-
dan and Rayner 2014; Jordan and Huitema 2014a; 2014b).
The concept rests on its attributes as the introduction
of disruptive, original, hitherto unseen and disturbing
practices that permanently alter the fundamentals of
a policy by moving away from its core status quo ante
(Howlett 2014, 2; Lynn 1997; Polsby 1984). Furthermore,
its implementation implies a certain risk (Altshuler
1997; Bingham 1978) due to its experimental nature,
the uncertainty of its real impacts, and the possibility
of producing unexpected eects. It is therefore rele-
vant to ask at some point why and how innovations are
adopted in a policy design.
This article aims at dening a theoretical causal mecha-
nism to explain policy innovation with enough abstrac-
tion and parsimony to be tested empirically in case
studies. Drawing on a critical realist ontology (Jackson
2016), the research was guided by a neo-institutional
theory of policy change explaining the interactions
between actors’ interests and ideas with formal and
informal institutions (Hall 1993). The argument is that
policy innovation is a particular kind of policy change
in which new objectives and means are combined in a
hitherto unseen way.
The causal explanation is not oriented toward a pre-
dictive theory, which would derive from a probabilis-
tic inference, but rather toward the identication of a
context-dependent pattern dened as a causal mecha-
nism linking institutional change to policy innovation.
The case study is based on Colombia’s policy of oil-rents
management. This case presents an insightful experi-
ence of policy change, through the creation of a cen-
tralized General Royalties System (SGR for its Spanish
acronym) in 2011 that reversed two decades of decen-
tralized distribution of royalties.
After this introduction, the remainder of the article
is organized as follows. The second section presents a
theoretical discussion on policy innovation as an institu-
tional problem. The third section describes the methods
utilized to test this theory by drawing on process tracing
and Bayesian formalization. The fourth section includes
a description and a discussion of the results. The nal
section draws some conclusions regarding the theoret-
ical and methodological implications of the case study.
Um mecanismo causal de inovação de política pública: a reforma do sistema de gestão de rendas
petroleiras na Colômbia
RESUMO | Este artigo analisa a inovação de políticas públicas na Colômbia por meio da adoção de um novo
sistema centralizado de gestão de rendas petroleiras em 2011, após 20 anos de políticas descentralizadas de
regalias. Aplicando um referencial analítico baseado no desenho de políticas, identicamos um mecanismo
causal que relaciona a abertura de oportunidades com a mudança de política pública, enquanto combinação
da emergência de uma nova rede de política, a adoção de um novo paradigma de política e a seleção de um
novo mix de instrumentos. Com base nas estatísticas bayesianas, os 11 testes aplicados ao mecanismo causal
mostram a importância dos recursos estatais de informação, autoridade, tesouro e organização para explicar a
mudança de políticas públicas.
PALAVRAS-CHAVE | Thesaurus: Colômbia; inovação. Autor: desenho de políticas; seguimento de processos;
rendas petroleiras
Para continuar leyendo
Solicita tu prueba
COPYRIGHT Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
