Desempleo Tecnológico: una aproximación al caso latinoamericano
| Autor | Andrés Aguilera/María Gabriela Ramos Barrera |
| Cargo | Facultad de Administración, Finanzas y Ciencias Económicas, Universidad EAN, Bogotá, D. C, Colombia/Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá, D. C, Colombia |
| Páginas | 59-78 |
59
AD-MINISTER
Technological Unemployment: an approximation to
the Latin American Case
Desempleo Tecnológico: un a aproximación al caso latinoamerica no
ANDRÉS
AGUILERA
MARÍA GABRIELA
RAMOS BARRERA
JEL: E, J, O
R e c e i v e d : 0 9 / 1 1 / 2 0 1 5
M o d i f i e d : 0 5 / 0 5 / 2 0 1 6
A c c e p t e d : 1 6 / 0 6 / 2 0 1 6
DOI: 10.17230 /ad-minis ter.29.3
www.ea fit.e du.co/ad- minis ter
Creative Commons (CC BY)
ABSTRACT
Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, control systems, software and related
technologies have revived the debate on the influence that technology has on labor markets. So far,
the focus of the literature has been on advanced economies. This document aims to analyze the
following variables: domestic spending in science and technology, GDP per capita, nominal minimum
wage, domestic spending in education and their impact on unemployment rate in seven Latin American
countries from 1996 to 2011. Panel data was used to measure the relation of these variables with
unemployment rates in the region. The results allowed us to conclude that investment in Science and
Technology in the region has not reached levels that potentially reduce employment; on the contrary,
innovation is regarded as a source of labor productivity gains. The broader implications of technology and
automation are yet to be seen, however, both firms and the public sector in the region must prepare for
massive technological unemployement, as predicted by recent models.
KEY WORDS
Technological innovation; unemployment; science and technology investments, gross domestic product.
RESUMEN
Avances recientes en Inteligencia Artificial (IA), robótica, sistemas de control, software y tecnologías
relacionadas han revivido el debate sobre la influencia que la tecnología ejerce en el mercado laboral.
Hasta el momento, el enfoque de la literatura se ha dado en economías avanzadas. Este documento
busca describir y comparar las siguientes variables: gasto doméstico en ciencia y tecnología, PIB per
cápita, salario mínimo nominal, gasto doméstico en educación en siete economías latinoamericanas y su
impacto en la tasa de desempleo durante el periodo 1996 a 2011. Se usaron datos panel para medir la
relación de las variables con las tasas de desempleo en la región. Los resultados nos permitieron concluir
que la inversión en ciencia y tecnología en la región no ha alcanzado niveles que reduzcan potencial-
mente el empleo; por el contrario, la innovación es vista como una fuente de ganancias en productividad
en la mano de obra. Las implicaciones más amplias de la tecnología y la automatización todavía no son
evidentes, sin embargo, tanto las firmas como el sector público en la región deben prepararse para el
desempleo tecnológico masivo que se ha estimado en modelos recientes.
PALABRAS CLAVE
Innovación tecnológica; desempleo; inversión en ciencia y tecnología, producto interno bruto.
1 Facultad de Administración, Finanzas y Ciencias Económicas, Universidad EAN, Bogotá, D. C,
Colombia. Email: aaguilerac@universidadean.edu.co ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9484-7047
2 Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá, D. C, Colombia. Email:
mgramos@unisalle.edu.co ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0887-5608
AD-mi nister Nº. 29 julio -dicie mbre 20 16 pp. 59 - 7 8 · ISS N 1692 -0279 · eISSN 2256-4 322
60
AD-MINISTER
Andrés Aguil era · M aría Ga briela Ramos Barrera
Technolog ical Un employme nt: an a pproxim ation to the Lat in Amer ican Cas e
INTRODUCTION
The influence of technology and innovation on labor markets has been a recurring
theme of study for economists and social scien tists since the Luddite movemen t
in England t hat opposed the integ ration of the spinning jenny in yarn produ ction
in the 19th century. (Autor, 2015) However, most of the specialized literature has
focused its att ention on advanced economies, leaving emerg ing markets out of
their scope of analysis.
In this paper, we address the following question: what could be the rela tionship
between domestic ex penditure in Science a nd Technology (S&T) and education
and the unemployment rate in seven Latin American economi es? To shed light
on this issue, we analyzed panel data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa
Rica, Mexico, Panama and Uruguay for the period 1996-2 011. More specifically, the
document aims to review the most recent and relevant research on the topic o f
technological unemployment, reviewing it in a Latin American context. Finally,
it will briefly describe the public po licy options encoun tered in the literature and
their implicatio ns for the private sector.
Keynes (1930) in the short essay Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildre n,
mentioned how the increases in eciency in the dierent production processes
would result i n the replacement of labor by capital, thus creating technologi cal
unemployment. Handel (2003) who base d his conclusions primarily on the works
by (Woirol, 1996; Bix, 2000) provided a glance of the literature on the subject matter
during the 20th century, focusing on the public policy response from dierent U.S.
administrations.
Autor (2015) des cribed the associated forces that have shaped labor markets
throughout mos t of the 20th and begi nning of the 2 1st century in developed
countries. Thos e forces include changes in the relative supply of coll ege and non-
college labor, rising trade penetrati on, oshoring, globalization of p roduction
chains, decline s in labor union pene tration, and the changing (declining) share of
labor in GDP. However, the one force that was singl ed out in the literature is the
impact of informat ion technology (IT).
This focus o n informati on technolo gy has supported the hypothesis of Skill
Biased Technological Change (SBTC) discusse d by (Bell, 1996; Autor, Katz &
Kruger, 1998; Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson & Hitt, 2002; Auto r, Levy & M urnane, 2001).
The SBTC hypot hesis argues that t he introduction of computers and in formation
technologies redu ced the demand for less-skilled workers hence reducing the
employment options for this population but increasing the demand for medium
and high skille d workers.
Goos and Manning (2003) contributed to the discussion showing evidence of a
market polarization in the United Kingdom where middle-skilled jobs are being lost
due to the implementation of technologies. Additional studies (Beaudry, Green &
Sand, 2016; Jaimovich & Siu, 2014) pointed out that technology not only aects those
with lower skills but also those occupations with higher cognitive tasks.
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